Israel prepares for major military operations

After the overthrow of a neighboring multi-year ruler of Egypt Hosni Mubarak, Israel has created rapid reaction forces in case the situation in Judea and Samaria gets out of control. It enhanced the guard of a number of military and civilian targets inside the country and abroad.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak inspected the military units stationed near the northern border and made a number of important statements. New Israeli war preparations are consistent with the anxiety that has seized the Middle East in recent weeks.

Recently Benny Ganz was appointed the new Chief of General Staff of Israel. Just like his predecessor, he had a career as a combat officer. One of his first decisions in his new position was separating of Haifa and a number of settlements located in the north of the country in a separate military district.

This is not a formal change in the structure, but an important step aimed at strengthening of the defense of the North. In summer of 2006, it was Haifa and Kiryat Shmona that suffered the most from the attacks of the radical Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah.

During a visit to battalion 932 "Granit" of the Infantry Brigade of IDF, Ehud Barak stated the possibility of a new invasion to Lebanon. This measure can be undertaken by the Israeli army in the event of another attack of Hezbollah.

According to Benny Ganz, Israel is preparing for major military operations in the face of the external threat. Despite the requirement under the UN resolution 1701, the Lebanese resistance movement not only has failed to disarm, but also significantly strengthened its position.

In response to the statements by Israeli Defense Minister, head of Hezbollah Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has warned that his fighters could occupy Galilee. The leader of the Lebanese resistance urged his supporters to take revenge on Israel for the death of a recently slain imam Mughni.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted that he did not regard these threats seriously. "Nasrallah declared today that he will conquer Galilee. I have news for him: he won't," RIA Novosti quoted the words of the Israeli Prime Minister.

Currently, military power of Hezbollah is not that strong to win over the IDF tanks and infantry, but without any major victories on land the militants are unlikely to seize such a territory as Galileo. Nevertheless, there is a cause for concern for Israelis.

According to the most conservative estimates, Hezbollah now has an arsenal of 40,000 rockets. In addition, a few months ago France supplied a small batch of the latest anti-tank grenade launchers to Lebanon, which can also cause troubles for the IDF units.

This was the framework for Iran's maneuvers in the Mediterranean Sea. Poorly armed Iranian ships do not pose a direct military threat to Israel. Nevertheless, the attempt of the fleet of the Islamic Republic to pass through the Suez Canal (for the first time since 1979) is a landmark event for the entire Middle East.

The events are somewhat reminiscent of the Agadir crisis of 1911, when the German gunboat Panther approached the shores of French Morocco. The incident was caused by the contradictions of colonial France and Germany in Africa. It was the Agadir crisis that showed the instability of the system of European security and became a forerunner of World War I in 1914.

Israeli media bring attention to the fact that the Iranian vessels may be used to supply missiles to Hezbollah through Syria. At the same time there were some concerns about the concentration of large forces of the Egyptian army in Sinai.

Nevertheless, the likelihood of a war with Egypt is not that significant compared to the threat posed by Hezbollah in the north and by Hamas in the Gaza Strip in the south. Numerous riots in the Arab countries are a factor of instability in the Gaza Strip and West Bank.

The Israeli military are carefully monitoring the situation in the region and getting ready for the worst scenario. The militants of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups are shelling Sderot and Ashkelon increasingly more often, and place explosive devices in the border areas. So far Israel's response is limited, but sooner or later the country's leaders may go for more drastic military measures.

Israel prepares for major military operations - English pravda.ru

US prepares to launch Libya attack

Latest media reports suggest that the United States and its allies may be preparing the ground for a military intervention in Libya.

The US Senate has unanimously passed a resolution calling for a no-fly zone over Libya.

The US Senate Armed Services Committee said all options, including the military option, should be on the table.

Earlier, the US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said Washington is looking at a full range of options for Libya.

Meanwhile, the US dailies, New York Times and Washington Post said the dissident leaders in the Libyan city of Benghazi have been debating about making a request for foreign air strikes against Gaddafi forces.

The report said the dissident leaders are growing frustrated over Gaddafi's iron grip on power.

Moreover, two US warships bound for the Mediterranean have entered Egypt's Suez Canal.

The USS Kear-sarge and the USS Ponce are carrying hundreds of marines, a fleet of helicopters and military equipment.

This comes as speculations escalate about a possible foreign military intervention in Libya.

Many observers believe that the US is concerned about the safety of Libya's oil reserves and not the country's people.

Libya holds the largest proven oil reserves in North Africa.

Meanwhile, the Israeli regime has reportedly authorized a security firm to send mercenaries to Libya to crush anti-government protesters there.

A journalist from Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot states that Tel Aviv has decided to recruit African mercenaries to fight against anti-government protesters in Libya.

The journalist says the director of the security firm was allowed to provide Libya's intelligence agency with the mercenaries. 

Canadian warship sails towards Libya for War

A Canadian warship is to sail off to join an International flotilla assembling off Libya without a specific mission mentioned for the deployment that will likely bolster a major US naval force already destined to the area.

The 134-meter frigate is carrying 225 sailors and a Sea King helicopter on its deck. It is to leave Halifax harbor and begin a seven-day journey to troubled Libya, AFP reported.

The warship HMCS Charlottetown will conduct undefined operations that reportedly may include possible evacuation assistance as pro-democracy protesters close-in on capital city of Tripoli to force the ouster of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi.

Meanwhile, two US warships bound for the Mediterranean have entered Egypt's Suez Canal.

The USS Kear-sarge and the USS Ponce are carrying hundreds of marines, a fleet of helicopters and military equipment.

This comes as speculations escalate about a possible foreign military intervention in Libya.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper told the parliament that it would participate in international evacuation operations “in light of the troubled and likely ongoing concerns in the region.”

Brutal crackdown by Muammar Gaddafi's regime on pro-democracy protesters has left thousands of people dead, and many more injured so far.

Thousands of Libyan citizens have been fleeing to Egypt, Tunisia and some European countries such as Italy. 

US warships enter Egypt's Suez Canal

The USS Kearsarge and the Ponce, two US amphibious assault ships, have entered the Suez Canal on their way to Libya as Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi continues his harsh crackdown on anti-government protesters, a canal official says.

The two US warships with hundreds of Marines on board headed towards Libya on Tuesday and entered Egypt's Suez Canal on Wednesday, Reuters reported.

The ships were at the southern mouth of the canal, the official said, adding that they were expected to pass through by 3:30 p.m. or 4:00 p.m. local time.

Earlier on Tuesday, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the USS Kearsarge, an amphibious ship capable of carrying up to 2,000 Marines, and the USS Ponce assault ship will be passing through the Mediterranean shortly.

According to top US military officials, the Kearsarge warship is carrying 400 Marines from the United States.

The US, along with Britain and France, has also sent hundreds of Special Forces to Libya's east. The forces are setting up bases in the cities of Benghazi and Tobruk.

The move comes against the backdrop of heated discussions over the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone on Libya, and a NATO-backed military intervention.

The US Senate on Tuesday unanimously passed a resolution urging the world to consider imposing a no-fly zone over Libya and condemning Gaddafi's bloody crackdown on Libyan civilians.

Lawmakers approved the measure, which "applauds" demonstrators demanding democratic reforms and "strongly condemns" Gaddafi's response.

The symbolic resolution calls on Gaddafi "to desist from further violence, recognize the Libyan people's demand for democratic change, resign his position and permit a peaceful transition to democracy." 

Pakistan, China to Hold Joint Military Exercises in 2011

Pakistan and China will hold two joint military exercises in 2011, a Pakistani senior military leader said Tuesday.

http://english.cri.cn/6909/2011/02/22/2021s622179.htm

The two exercises, one army drill and one air force one, will be held to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between Pakistan and China, said General Khalid Shameem Wynne, chairman of Pakistan's Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee.

Wynne, who is paying a five-day visit to China, told reporters that the two countries will also participate in a multinational navy drill in March.

Wynne hailed the strategic partnership between Pakistan and China, saying it is "the best example" of bilateral ties and a "stabilizing force" in the region.

"The China-Pakistan partnership is a source of comfort and stability for the entire region," Wynne said.

The visit is Wynne's first official visit to China since he was promoted to the rank of general and assumed his present position in October 2010.

In July 2010, Wynne led a joint anti-terrorism drill between Pakistan and China in Qingtongxia in northwest China's Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.

Special weapons of the Nazi Germany

WunderWaffe 1 - Vampire Vision

Sturmgewehr 44 was the first attack rifle, similar to the moderns M-16 and Kalashnikov AK-47. ZG 1229, also know by the name vampire code, could be used by the snippers at night because of its infrared vision. It was used in last months of the war.

WunderWaffe 2 - Super-Heavy Tank

The German engineers worked in a lot of super-heavy tanks draws and the Panzerkampfwagen VIII Maus was the heaviest model to be made as a prototype during the war. The weight of this tank was about 180 tons.

The Bear version, with 1500 tons, carried 2 800mm cannons and 2 150mm auxiliaries rotational towers that lied behind. To locomote this giant structure, four U-boat submarine diesel motors were necessary.
WunderWaffe 4 - The first ICBM - Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

Iran warns against blunder by US, West

Ahead of the comprehensive talks between Iran and major world powers in Turkey, Iranian permanent representative to the UN has warned the US and the West against any miscalculations on the Islamic Republic.

“The West's miscalculation on regional and international capabilities of the Islamic Republic has led Western states to pursue wrong policies in the region. This has inflicted heavy losses on them,” said Mohammad Khazaei in a Tuesday press briefing in New York among US and international journalist, quoted by IRNA. 

The Iranian official cited the ongoing situation in Afghanistan, Iraq and other countries in the region as samples of such wrong policies. 

He emphasized that the upcoming multifaceted talks between Iran and the P5+1 -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the US plus Germany -- in the Turkish city of Istanbul on January 21 and 22 would be an “opportunity” for the West to cooperate with Iran in various fields. 

Khazaei expressed Iran's readiness to hold productive talks in Istanbul, reiterating that Tehran is firmly determined to resolve political, security, economic and energy issues at regional and international levels. 

“We will not negotiate on our peaceful nuclear rights. To the Islamic Republic, interaction in these talks is a strategy and not a tactic to buy time,” he emphasized. 

The Iranian envoy stressed that constructive talks based on justice and mutual respect without any preconditions would be the mere solution and said, “However, if the other side adopts another approach, Iran will respond accordingly.” read more

Turkey-Pakistan Ties: India's Loss is China's Gain

In pursuit of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's concept of strategic depth, Turkey has been reaching out to rising powers in Asia while at the same time offering itself as a mediator in disputes in its near abroad. As part of this approach, Turkey is leveraging its longstanding ties with Pakistan and its stature as one of the few industrialized countries in the Muslim world to create a diplomatic role for itself in Afghanistan. But in a sign that Ankara's geopolitical outreach cannot transcend regional fault lines, Turkey kept India out of the January 2010 tripartite summit on Afghanistan at Pakistan's behest. In the face of India's diplomatic protest, Turkey subsequently sought to downplay the move, but it may nevertheless be indicative of a larger realignment in the region, with the Pakistan-Turkey relationship serving as an incubator.

Turkey was one of Pakistan's most-consistent allies throughout the Cold War, both ideologically and militarily. Military-to-military contacts remain as strong as ever, with the two countries now seriously exploring the coproduction of weapons ranging from armored vehicles to new-generation corvettes. Importantly, both sides also wish to boost defense exports to Islamic countries as an alternative to "expensive" Western weapons. However, given that Gulf Cooperation Council countries have recently placed substantial orders for American weapons, more likely candidates would be Egypt and Iran -- with the latter increasingly wooed by Ankara even at the cost of Turkey's long-standing ties with Israel.

A strong defense relationship with Pakistan gives Ankara the confidence to continue its troop presence in Afghanistan. While Turkey likes to describe its military contingent in Afghanistan as the only foreign force acceptable to the Afghan populace, it nevertheless understands that the well-being of its security presence may hinge on Pakistani support, given the latter's influence with the Taliban.

Pakistan is also attractively positioned as a facilitator for greater Sino-Turkish cooperation. Turkey's rising profile in Afghanistan comes at a time when China is beginning to seriously enter Afghanistan's resource-mining sector. China is also likely to seek Turkish help in dealing with the insurgency in Xinjiang on the basis of ethnic ties between Turks and Uighurs. China has added Turkey to the list of regional countries with which it is engaged in strategic missile cooperation -- the other chief recipients being Pakistan and Iran. In a move that shows that Turkey may be adopting an unconventional deterrence posture, the Turkish army obtained the technology for the short-range J-600T Yildrim ballistic missile from China. Moreover, the Chinese air force was a surprise participant in last year's annual Anatolian Eagle air exercise, in lieu of the Israelis or the Americans. This could well be a prelude to closer aerospace cooperation among China, Turkey and Pakistan, especially given China's development of various fourth- and fifth-generation fighter aircraft.

Pakistan may serve as a bridge between Turkey and China in a more-literal manner. In 2009, the 4,000-mile Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight line opened for service, and 11 train loads of aid for Pakistan's flood-affected areas have already made their way from Turkey, with more to follow. During Turkish President Abdullah Gul's visit to Islamabad last December, the two sides agreed to work on a $20-billion plan to upgrade this rail link into a high-speed freight corridor. It is not inconceivable that China will at some point link up with this project by building a rail line through the Karakoram Pass connecting Kashgar in Xinjiang to Islamabad.

Turkey has also been involved in Pakistani rebuilding efforts following the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. As for the Kashmir dispute itself, Turkey has in the last decade tempered its firm support of the Pakistani position to adopt a more-balanced approach that frames the conflict as a bilateral dispute to be solved via dialogue, rather than on the basis of 60-year-old U.N. resolutions. But given the conservative lurch in Turkish society and the ruling AKP party's political orientation, Ankara is likely to increasingly take into account Islamic sensibilities in its approach to Kashmir, similar to its shift on the Israel-Palestine conflict.

That, coupled with the fact that India has now been kept out of a fifth successive round of the trilateral dialogue that took place in late-December, makes it unlikely that Turkey's plan to present itself as a mediator in Afghanistan will inspire confidence in New Delhi. For its part, Turkey has sought to delink its concessions to Pakistan from its engagement with India, which it instead wants focused on trade and energy. Turkey is currently pushing for a free-trade agreement with India and has previously invited India to join the Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline.

But as with all of the other transnational gas pipelines to India's west that it has been invited to join, transit through Pakistan remains problematic. By contrast, the Chinese are in a better position to benefit as potential partners in regional energy infrastructure projects, given their all-weather friendship with Pakistan and the latter's control over the Gilgit-Baltistan region of Northern Kashmir bordering Xinjiang.

This possibility that Turkey might serve as the final node in China's ambition to gain overland access to the Mediterranean and the Middle East via Eurasian corridors should be far more worrisome to India than being kept out of the tripartite dialogue on Afghanistan. The very same constituencies that propelled the AKP to power in Turkey are also those that drive Turkey's turn to the east, and linking up with China seems like the biggest economic prize on offer. Better relations with Iran may also be understood in this context.

Running through all of these shifts is Pakistan's ability to exploit its geostrategic location to frustrate India's own ambitions to build bridges to Central and West Asia, while simultaneously proving an alluring partner for a Turkey looking to emerge as a genuine global middle power.

WPR Article | Turkey-Pakistan Ties: India's Loss is China's Gain

'Iran navy to build new destroyers'

Iranian Navy's Deputy Commander Rear Admiral Gholam-Reza Khadem Bigham says the navy aims to build new destroyers with state-of-the-art design and defense systems.

“The assembly line for the production of missile-launching frigates with advanced systems and modern features have been set up,” IRNA quoted Rear Admiral Bigham as saying on Friday.

He hailed the country's first domestically-build and developed guided missile destroyer Jamaran and said, “The military capabilities … need to meet our defense requirements to protect the Islamic Republic's interests against aerial, surface and sub-surface threats.”

Last February, the Iranian Navy launched the Jamaran destroyer with a displacement of around 1,420 tons, fitted with modern radars and other electronic warfare capabilities.

Jamaran, a multi-mission destroyer, can carry 120-140 personnel on board and is armed with a variety of surface-to-air missiles.

It has a top speed of up to 30 knots and has a helipad. It also features highly advanced anti-aircraft, anti-surface and anti-subsurface systems. The vessel has also been equipped with torpedoes and modern naval cannons.

Rear Admiral Bigham also said that the Naval Forces of the Islamic Republic Army is fully capable of defending the country as they continue to upgrade the navy's defense systems.

He underscored the navy's plans for longer missions in international waters and pointed out that more durable surface and sub-surface fleet were required to achieve the goal. 

N Korea renews bid for talks with South

North Korea has renewed its offer for an early resumption of negotiations with the South as part of fence-mending efforts to defuse rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

According to a statement published by the official KCNA news agency on Saturday, Pyongyang officials once again called for an early and unconditional dialogue with Seoul, adding that they would also reopen a liaison office for economic cooperation at the North's Kaesong City as a "measure of good faith," AFP reported.

"There is neither conditionality in the North's proposal for dialogue nor need to cast any doubt about its real intention," read the statement by the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea.

The latest offer for rapprochement comes days after South Korea rejected an earlier proposal by North Korea to hold unconditional talks with Seoul in an attempt to tamp down growing tensions on the fractured peninsula.

"The South Korean authorities should discard any unnecessary misgiving, open their hearts and positively respond to the north's proposal and measure," the statement said.

"We do not want to see the present South Korean authorities pass the five-year term of their office idly without North-South dialogue," it added.

Meanwhile, Unification Ministry Chun Hae-sung stated that Seoul will assess the latest offer, reiterating that his country wants North Korean officials to manifest their sincerity through deeds not words.

Authorities in Pyongyang suggested that the level of the talks and their venue and the date would be decided under a mutual agreement, however, they hinted that the negotiations might be held within weeks.

The statement also pointed out that Pyongyang will reopen an office for inter-Korean economic cooperation in its Kaesong City near border, in a move to manifest its "good faith."read more

Seoul rejects Pyongyang's talks offer

South Korea has rejected a North Korean call for unconditional talks to ease tension on the Korean Peninsula, saying the offer was "propaganda."

"North Korea previously issued statements like this early in the year ... they are normally done as part of (a) propaganda campaign towards the South," a Unification Ministry official willing not to be identified said Thursday, Reuters reported. 

Pyongyang's offer for talks was considered an empty gesture. "We do not consider this as a serious proposal for dialogue. It is not even in the correct and appropriate format," the informed official added. 

Earlier on Wednesday, North Korea announced that it was ready for an "unconditional and early opening of talks" with the South amid high tension on the peninsula. 

The North's call for talks comes after the United States met Chinese and South Korean officials for talks about how to calm the Korean Peninsula.

Tensions have been high between the two Koreas since a deadly artillery exchange on an island last November. 

Pyongyang said it shelled the area as a result of provocations by Seoul. South demands an apology after North Korea's deadly shelling of the island. 

The crisis further deepened over rounds of joint military drills South Korea held with the United States despite threats of retaliation from Pyongyang. 

Largest Indo-French Naval Exercise Yet From Tomorrow

Largest Indo-French Naval Exercise Yet From Tomorrow

Exercise Varuna 2011, starting tomorrow in the Arabian Sea off Goa, is a major part of the French Navy's Agapanthe 2010 deployment. This bilateral exercise will involve nine ships, including two aircraft carriers: INS Viraat (with Sea Harriers and Seaking) and FS Charles De Gaulle (strike group composed of E2C, Rafale and SEM).

The 7 other units are the following: Indian frigates INS Godavari and INS Ganga, Class-209 submarine INS Shalki, French destroyers FS Forbin and FS Tourville, fleet tanker FS Meuse and nuclear submarine FS Améthyste. Shorebased maritime patrol aircraft will also participate in the exercise.

Exercise Varuna will start with a harbour phase in Mormugao (7-10 January), followed by a phase at sea (11-14 January). The phase off Goa includes air operations, submarine exercises, surface exercises as well as replenishment at sea.

http://livefist.blogspot.com/2011/01...rcise-yet.html

The Second Indo-Chinese War (2013-2015)

The Second Indo-Chinese War (2013-2015)

Cause of the War

The Indian military at the time of the Second Indo-Chinese War (starting sometime between 2013 and 2015) was a powerful force dominating South Asia. It was definitely not 1962, when India went to war against China without due preparation. Since 1962, India fought several border skirmishes with Pakistan and eventually split it in the 1971 war. In 1987, Indian troops even faced off against the PLA at Sumdorong Chu Valley and eventually occupied Southern Tibet and turned it into the state of Arunachal Pradesh.

Since the early 2000’s, India’s economic growth has been spectacular, at least on paper. The economic growth created a sizable middle-class and upper-class Indians in the cities while poverty and malnutrition still existed in the countryside. Rampant inflation and other economic dislocation led to discontent from the urban poor. As India grew richer as a whole, Naxalites, Kashmiris and other rebellious factions grew more and more powerful.

As a result, New Delhi was forced to adopt a more and more aggressive foreign policy to keep the country united and distract from domestic problems. New Delhi strategists believed India’s path is to mimic the British Empire and project power as a conqueror. By 2010, India had outclassed Pakistan economically and regarded Pakistan only as source of terrorism, not a conventional war threat. India’s most powerful neighbor was China and New Delhi could not feel strategically secure until an independent Tibet is created as a buffer zone. This motivation was strengthened by India’s desire for redemption for its 1962 defeat and deep-rooted colonial racism against China. India also needed Tibet's water resources because India's rapidly increasing population had outgrown its territory so expansion was required.

Prior to 2000, India was shunned by the West and could only buy second-class, faulty weapons from Russia. After 2000, India started to acquire first-class weapons from Russia like the T-90, Su-30MKI and from Israel like the Phalcon AWACS and Green Pine radar. By 2010, even the US was offering India first-class weapons like the new M777 light howitzer, C-17, C-130 transport and Apache combat helicopter. Between 1995 and 2010, the India military had gone from a large but low quality Soviet-armed force to a more professional force with an eclectic mix of first-class weaponry from both East and West.

Strategic competition between US and China for primacy in East Asia was the reason why arming India became US policy. The US wanted to enlist India to help contain China. However, the US also faced the problem that it needed Pakistan too. This problem dogged the US until it finally reached a solution in 2010 -- it would sell weapons to India to use against China in the Himalayan border regions, but it would discourage India from using them against Pakistan.

The US does not want to see India conquering Pakistan-administered Kashmir, as that might make India too powerful to handle and eventually Indian Navy might even start affecting US naval primacy in the Indian Ocean. The US also does not want to see India continue to improve its nuclear and missile technology so that one day it can build ICBM that can reach New York. But selling artillery, helicopters, transports and fighter jets (like Super Hornet and F-16E/F offered for MMRCA competition) to fight China in a Himalayan war is okay.

Indo-Chinese relations plummeted in 2009 when PM Singh first decided to side with US to contain China and eventually carve out an independent Tibet. Since then, relations have been hostile, cold and confrontational. Sometime between 2013 and 2015, the newest US weapons were delivered to the Indian military. Not long after, the war begins.

Deployment of Forces

Since the late 2000’s, India has been raising and deploying more and more elite mountain divisions toward both the Eastern Sector and Western Sector of the disputed boundary with China. India has been supplying them with airstrips in the forward areas like Tawang and Ladakh. Indian doctrine is to use strike deep into Tibet with air-launched Brahmos, cut off Chinese defenders from supplies and overrun them. Meanwhile, India will encourage ethnic Tibetans to rebel against Beijing and sabotage PLA supplies.

By the start of the war, China had largely completed its infrastructure construction in Tibet. It has a railroad from Qinghai to Tibet and another one from Chengdu to Lhasa. China built civilian airports and military air bases in Tibet close to the Indian border. Highways tunneled through mountains provide access to the disputed Eastern Sector. Meanwhile, China opened a railroad along the Karakorum Highway through Pakistan-administered Kashmir linking Kashgar, Xinjiang with Islamabad and opened a railroad from Tibet to Kathmandu.

Major Chinese Weapons in the Theater

PLZ-04 artillery

Z-10A combat helicopter

HQ-9 SAM

CJ-10 cruise missile

J-10B air superiority fighter

J-11BS strike fighter

Phase I: The Indian Offensive

Ground forces of the two countries had already been maneuvering and watching each other when the air war began. So, China was prepared when India began its attack on the Qinghai-Tibet railway and the Chengdu-Lhasa railway. The KJ-2000 spotted the incoming squadrons of MKI and MMRCA soon after taking off from forward bases.

MKI was at a serious disadvantage to J-11BS. MKI had late-80’s Soviet avionics compared to J-11BS’s modern suite. MKI was a heavy Russian-manufactured beast while J-11BS was much lighter because of China’s composite materials technology. Also, India could not maintain foreign equipment very well or repair because spare parts usually came from Russia. Indian license-made parts were very poor in quality. As a result, some of the force could not fly and defects affected the entire MKI force. Chinese AA missiles such as PL-10 were also a generation ahead of the R-73 and R-73 on the MKI.

The J-10B also had an advantage over India’s MMCRA. The Eurofighter and Rafale were too expensive for India to buy in any reasonable quantity so India chose another. But none of the other aircraft had an upper hand over the J-10B. The J-10B has stealth features like DSI-intakes and extensive composites. It uses the FWS10A -- a 140 kN engine in the same thrust class as the Russian 117S. J-10B carries an AESA radar, electronic warfare suite and advanced AA missiles. As an air superiority fighter, it is a true equal to the Eurofighter and Rafale.

China had the numbers advantage. Where India buys, China makes indigenously at a fraction of the price. For China, a J-10B costs only ~$30 million, far less than what India would pay for a Mig-35! Where India can only induct 25 or 50 aircraft per year, Chinese war factories can crank out more than 100 per year. Just in the theater alone, China had more than 300 4th generation fighters (J-10B and J-11BS) to India’s 200 or so flyable MKI and MMRCA.

Finally, PLAAF could engage in information-centric warfare. J-10B and J-11BS work together with HQ-9 SAM and KJ-2000 as force-multiplier. Indian weapons from Russia, US, France, UK, Israel, etc. simply cannot work as an integrated system. As a result, the pride of the Indian Air Force was lost in the first few days. However, they did inflict substantial losses on the PLAAF at a ratio of 4:1 (in favor of China). China lost ~1/6 of the fighters it brought to the theater.

The remaining IAF was a handful of poorly maintained, half-flyable Mirage, Mig-29 and Mig-21. Those were quickly destroyed on the ground by J-11BS with precision-guided munitions, as were forward Indian air strips and logistics depots.

Phase II: Mountain Warfare

With total control of the skies, China proceeded to attack Indian army bases. The handful of Indian S-300 batteries was destroyed using SEAD tactics and the Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft. It was made easier by the fact that China itself operates these systems. The handful of Green Pine radars was destroyed using terrain-hugging CJ-10 cruise missiles. The indigenous Akash did not perform very well and could not stop PLAAF from dropping precision-guided munitions over all Indian army bases in forward areas.

Without fighter support or supplies, the elite Indian mountain divisions could only mount a brave but desperate offensive. Z-10A grossly outnumbered the Apache that India purchased. Again, this is because China makes indigenously at a fraction of the price. The highly-advanced Z-10A is equivalent to the Eurocopter Tiger but has less firepower and less armor than the heavier Apache.

The Chinese also have the advantage of bringing SPAAG, CIWS and short-range SAM on the highways to defend against Apache and Mi-35. Indian-controlled side had no highways. Chinese infantry carry advanced QW-2 manpads (equivalent to Stinger) against helicopters. LCH never made it to the fight because India could not successfully turn the European-made Dhruv into a combat helicopter.

Indian army had the excellent M777 light howitzer, and this weapon definitely caused damage to PLA. But the Indians faced the disadvantage that they could not "shoot-and-scoot" like the PLZ-04 since M777 was towed and there was no highway. As a result, India's M777 attrited very fast. Yet India could not crank out replacements because it is purchased not indigenously made.

PLA's biggest advantage is that it could bring up far more numbers using railways. When the Indians began their attack, they thought they enjoyed a 3:1 advantage in numbers. But they did not expect that China had quietly brought up rapid-reaction forces from Lanzhou military region, Chengdu military region and Guangzhou military region. In the end, Indian army was outnumbered 5:1!

Despite being outnumbered and outgunned, Indian army fought bravely and inflicted 2:1 (in favor of China) casualties on PLA. The high quality of the Apache and M777 was a factor. Nonetheless, PLA commanded the upper hand. Waves of PLZ-04 artillery fire rained down on the Indian mountain divisions wherever they were, killing / wounding many of them. PLA infantry supported by Z-10A followed up and tore into Indian positions. The few that survived the vicious assault ran away and eventually froze to death. PLA suffered ~1/10 casualties.

Phase III: Chinese Counter-Offensive

Having destroyed the IAF and destroyed the mountain divisions in both Eastern and Western Sectors, China went on the offense to incapacitate India from any future military adventures.

PLA advanced into the “chicken-neck” area and overran Indian defenses, cutting off the entire northeast. PLA moved through Myanmar and attacked Indian army positions near the border. India demanded that Bangladesh let Indian army transit through to save the northeast, but Bangladesh refused, knowing that it would gain from an independent Republic of Assam, for example better water rights.

In the Western Sector, PLA attacked the Indian army on Siachen Glacier from both the Chinese side and the Pakistan side in a pincher maneuver. Finally, PLA moved into Jammu and Kashmir to roll back the remaining Indian army. Overjoyed at their liberation, Kashmiris rise up and set fire to GoI buildings in Srinagar. The pro-India faction in Kashmir flees the angry mob.

Within two weeks from the beginning of the war, Kashmir was totally lost and the Indian army in Assam was cut off from the rest of India. Then, China fired hundreds terrain-hugging CJ-10 cruise missile at power plants and electricity grids. Suddenly, all the major cities in India are without electricity and running water.

As India entered darkness, rebellion and communal violence broke out all over the country. Naxalites and Assam separatists launched direct assaults on pro-India police and paramilitary forces. Local governments and entire states declare independence from New Delhi. Some generals in the Indian Army tried to restore GoI authority by force but instead the whole country simply sank into civil war.

Important Lessons from the Second Indo-Chinese War

(1) China should not underestimate India. Yes, its indigenous weapons are not a cause for concern, but the weapons India imported in the 2008-2015 time frame is first-class! Sure they will be lesser in quantity and not as well integrated as indigenous Chinese weapons but they are nothing to scoff at.

(2) It is precisely because India has upgraded from second-class weapons to first-class weapons since 2008 that India has started styling itself a "superpower." India is fundamentally an expansionist state and quite dangerous.

(3) China is already reacting to India's hostile policy. Chinese defense minister recently said "Chinese military must be self-reliant." This is reminding India that its arms purchases will not help it defeat China and assert itself as the Asian superpower.

(4) The Second Indo-Chinese War will be decided by fighter aircraft, artillery and combat helicopters. This is why the US is selling these specifically to India! The weapons offered by the US are comparable to the best that China can field indigenously (J-10B, PLZ-04 and Z-10A), making China's industrial advantage over India not decisive.

China prepares for war 'in all directions'

China prepares for war 'in all directions'  Peter Foster, Beijing December 31, 2010 CHINA is preparing for conflict ''in every direction'', its Defence Minister says. ''In the coming five years, our military will push forward preparations for military conflict in every strategic direction,'' General Liang Guanglie said in an interview published by state-backed newspapers in China. ''We may be living in peaceful times, but we can never forget war, never send the horses south or put the bayonets and guns away.'' China has repeatedly said it is planning a ''peaceful rise'', but the pace and scale of its military modernisation has alarmed many neighbours, including Japan, which described the build-up of its armed forces as a ''global concern''. Tension between China and India also emerged during a mid-December visit to Delhi by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. Indian leaders contend that China is being provocative in Kashmir as it grows closer to Pakistan, China's ally and India's nemesis. China has infuriated India by starting to issue special stapled-paper visas - rather than the standard visa - for anyone in Indian-controlled Kashmir travelling to China, on the grounds Kashmir is a disputed territory. China later objected to including a top Indian general responsible for Kashmir in a military exchange. In response, Indian officials angrily suspended military exchanges between the countries. The most visible evidence that these problems were deepening came in the joint communique issued by the two nations at the end of Mr Wen's visit. China typically demands that nations voice support for the one-China policy, which holds that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. In the past, India has agreed to such language, but this time it was omitted, a clear sign of Delhi's irritation. General Liang's remarks came at a time of increasingly difficult relations between the Chinese and US armed forces, which a three-day visit by his counterpart, Robert Gates, was intended to address. A year ago, China froze substantive military relations in protest at US arms sales to Taiwan and relations deteriorated further this summer when China objected to US plans to deploy a nuclear aircraft carrier, the USS George Washington, in the Yellow Sea off the Korean Peninsula. China also announced this month it was preparing to launch its own aircraft carrier next year. The news emerged a year earlier than many US defence analysts had predicted. China is also working on a ballistic missile that could sink aircraft carriers from afar, fundamentally reordering the balance of power in a region dominated by the US since the end of World War II. In an interview in Japan this week, Admiral Robert Willard, a US Navy commander, said he believed the Chinese anti-ship missile had already achieved ''initial operational capability'', although it would require years of testing. Analysts remain divided over whether China is initiating an Asian arms race. However, in a speech earlier this year, Mr Gates warned that China's growing military might ''threatens America's primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific''. General Liang also pledged that China's armed forces would increasingly be self-reliant when it comes to technology, an area in which the People's Republic lags behind the West. ''The modernisation of the Chinese military cannot depend on others,'' he said. ''In the next five years, our economy and society will develop faster, boosting comprehensive national power. We will take the opportunity and speed up modernisation of the military.'' TELEGRAPH, NEW YORK TIMES China prepares for war 'in all directions'

Most Americans oppose Afghan war

A new opinion poll has found that opposition to the Afghan war is at an all-time high in the US as security situation continues to worsen in Afghanistan.

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll (PDF) released on Thursday shows that more than six in ten Americans are now opposed to the war in Afghanistan. 

There is also a growing pessimism in the American public about the way things are going for the US in the war, the poll suggests. 

In response to a question on how “things are going” in the warzone 56 percent responded with “moderately badly” or “very badly.” 

The US President Barack Obama ordered the deployment of 30,000 additional soldiers in Afghanistan about a year ago. 

However, security situation continued to deteriorate across the war-ravaged country in 2010 -- the deadliest year for foreign presence in Afghanistan. 

The total death toll of US-led troops has surpassed the 700 milestone, with the Americans accounting for most of the casualties. 

In the review of his war strategy in Afghanistan this month, Obama declared that the war "continues to be a very difficult endeavor" and the achievements made there are "fragile and reversible." 

Obama had pledged a major drawdown from Afghanistan by July 2011. However, Washington later announced that American troops will remain in the war-torn country for at least four more years. 

The 2001 US-led invasion was launched with the objective of bringing peace and stability to Afghanistan. 

After nine years and despite the presence of over 150,000 US-led troops across Afghanistan, the country's security remains very fragile. 

Moreover, according to the United Nations, the death toll of Afghan civilians this year is 20 percent higher than in 2009, with over 2,400 civilians killed in the country from January to September. 

http://presstv.ir/detail/158000.html

Pakistan: Alliance Over if US Troops Expand War Across Border

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by Jason Ditz, December 21, 2010
Pakistani military leaders are warning the United States to keep their troops on the Afghan side of the border, with officials cautioning that the long-standing anti-terror alliance between the two countries would be ended formally if the United States invades.

US military officials are said to be pushing not only for permission to launch raids into Pakistan’s tribal areas, but are hoping to increase the rate so much as to make such raids a “routine” part of the Afghan War.

NATO, for its part, is denying that it has any plans to approve the attacks, but the Times of London reported that US officials believe they are very close to getting the go ahead by the Pakistani government for the raids.

The US has launched a handful of cross-border raids over the past several years, most recently in September when they killed 60 “suspects” just across the border. That raid led Pakistan to close the border to NATO supplies and sparked a major rift in relations. One can only imagine how much damage would be done if such raids become as common as drone strikes.

South Korea holds live-fire drill despite war threat

YEONPYEONG, South Korea: South Korea held live firing drills in a disputed area on Monday despite threats of war from Pyongyang after an emergency UN Security Council meeting failed to agree on how to defuse the crisis.

The drill, delayed from the weekend by bad weather, lasted almost two hours with near constant artillery fire, some near and some distant, which shook air raid bunkers on the island of Yeonpyeong. There was no immediate North Korean response.

“I can’t exactly tell how many have been fired, some are distant and some are noisy. The bunker is shaking and people here are worried, including myself,” said a Reuters witness.

There was no incoming fire.

On November 23, the last time Seoul conducted firing drills from Yeonpyeong close to the disputed maritime border off the west coast of the peninsula, Pyongyang retaliated by shelling the island, killing two civilians and two marines in the worst attack on South Korean territory since the Korean war ended in 1953.

But amid the tension there was also a report of a potential diplomatic breakthrough, with US trouble-shooter Bill Richardson winning concessions from North Korea on the return of nuclear inspectors, according to CNN.

North Korea warned last week that it would strike even harder if the latest drills went ahead. China and Russia have cautioned Seoul against holding the exercise, while the United States has backed South Korea’s right to hold the drills.

The tension initially hit Korean markets when they opened on Monday, with the won falling nearly two per cent to a four-week low against the dollar and stocks also down one per cent in early trade.

But shares recouped most of their losses to close down just 0.3 per cent, slightly outperforming the region as a whole, while the won ended local trade higher against the dollar. Some dealers cited the tensions as a factor helping push gold up by one per cent on international markets.

Sunday’s announcement that Seoul would impose a levy on the foreign debt of banks from late 2011 also weighed on markets. The move was Seoul’s latest attempt to discourage too much speculative hot money flowing into South Korean assets, a reminder that local markets are bullish despite the tensions.

“The fact that foreign investors are continuing to buy comes as a reassuring sign,” said Kwak Joon-bo, analyst at Samsung Securities. “Unless North Korea takes actions that are akin to its artillery shelling of the island, the market will be relatively calm.”

Possible deal

New Mexico Governor Richardson, visiting Pyongyang to try to ease tensions, won agreement from North Korea to allow UN nuclear inspectors to return, according to CNN which has a team travelling with him.

Pyongyang “agreed to allow International Atomic Energy Agency personnel to return to a nuclear facility in the country and agreed to negotiate the sale of 12,000…fuel rods and ship them to an outside country, presumably to South Korea,” CNN said, quoting correspondent Wolf Blitzer in Pyongyang.

“The North has also agreed to consider Richardson’s proposal for a military commission between the United States, North Korea and South Korea as well as a separate hotline for the Koreas’ militaries.”

The South Korean Foreign Ministry said it could not confirm the agreement.

“We do not have the specific details yet, so it is too early to make an official evaluation,” a spokesman said.

Richardson was visiting in an unofficial capacity, the traditional means of communication between the two sides, but it was unclear whether the reported agreement would ease tensions, particularly given Pyongyang’s poor record of honoring deals.

North Korea expelled inspectors in April 2009 after ripping up a previous disarmament-for-aid agreement.

North Korea expert Kim Yong-hyun of Dongguk University said the proposed sale of fuel rods would indicate Pyongyang was offering to shut down its plutonium-based nuclear programme, which bringing back inspectors would also indicate.

“It means that they are prepared to give up, at least in part, the plutonium programme, which has been the source of the fuel rods they came up with,” he said. “It would be considerable progress, if true.”

However, North Korea last month unveiled major technical progress in uranium enrichment, suggesting another reason it could be willing to end the plutonium programme.

Fears of escalation

Both sides have said they will use force to defend what they say is their territory off the west coast, raising international concern that the standoff could quickly spiral out of control.

Yonhap quoted military officials as saying shells fired in the drill would land more than 10 km from the maritime border. But Pyongyang disputes the border and said last week that it would be a suicidal provocation for Seoul to hold the exercise.

“The South Korean puppet warmongers going in league with outside forces are getting ever more frantic in their moves for a war of aggression…pushing the situation to the brink of a war,” North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper said on Monday.

South Korean officials said the North had been making military preparations similar to those observed ahead of last month’s deadly clash, removing covers from coastal artillery and forward-deploying some artillery batteries.

Seoul defends the drills as routine and says it has been holding them on a monthly basis for years. China and Russia say holding the exercise now will only increase tension.

“Let me reiterate very strong concern of the Russian Federation that within hours there may be a serious aggravation of tension, a serious conflict for that matter,” said Russia’s UN Ambassador, Vitaly Churkin. “It’s better to refrain from doing this exercise at this point in time.”

Wang Min, China’s representative at the Security Council meeting, warned that “the situation on the Korean peninsula is perilous” and defended Beijing’s approach to the crisis.

“If a bloody clash breaks out on the Korean peninsula, that would first of all hurt the people on both sides of the peninsula and bring a national tragedy of mutual fratricide between the compatriots in the North and South,” Wang told the Security Council, according to Xinhua.

Russia had called Sunday’s emergency Security Council meeting to try to prevent an escalation, but major powers failed to agree on a draft statement due to differences over whether to lay the blame on Pyongyang.

“The gaps that remain are unlikely to be bridged,” said Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN.

Other council diplomats, however, said it was possible the council could return to the issue as early as Monday.

Western diplomats said China and Russia were pushing for an ambiguous statement that would not have blamed North Korea for the crisis, but would have called
on both sides to exercise restraint. Rice said the “vast majority” of council members did not want an ambiguous statement.